It was eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
